The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies by Vincenzo Galasso

By Vincenzo Galasso

Choice impressive educational identify, 2007. Doubts concerning the skill of industrialized international locations to proceed to supply a enough point of retirement advantages to progressively more retirees has fueled a lot fresh debate and encouraged a number of ideas for reform. Few significant reforms, notwithstanding, have really been applied. In The Political way forward for Social defense in getting older Societies , Vincenzo Galasso argues that the good fortune of any reform proposals is determined by political elements instead of financial conception. He bargains a comparative research of the longer term political sustainability of social safeguard in six nations with swiftly getting older populations—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the uk, and the USA. utilizing a quantitative method, he reveals that an getting older inhabitants has political in addition to monetary results: an older voters will placed strain on politicians and policy-makers to take care of or perhaps raise merits. Galasso evaluates how each one country’s various political constraints form its social defense process, contemplating such country-specific components because the share of retirees within the inhabitants, the redistributive function of every process, and the prevailing retirement coverage in each one nation. He concludes that an getting older inhabitants will bring about extra pension spending; but suspending retirement mitigates the influence of this, and should be the single politically conceivable substitute for social safeguard reform.

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Yet Gruber and Wise (1999) and Blo¨ndal and Scarpetta (1998) identify another crucial economic determinant of this retirement behavior: the existence of a large implicit tax imposed on continuing to work after the early retirement age. By this evidence, workers’ decision to retire early represents their optimal response to the economic incentives provided by the social security system. Because of the widespread use of these early retirement provisions, the old age dependency ratio—a demographic indicator—differs quite dramatically from the pension dependency ratio (the ratio of retirees to workers).

3 Official Projections An official assessment of the long run financial sustainability of the system, and hence of the need for further reforms, has been carried out in a joint effort by the European Commission and the OECD—together with the member countries. The aim of the project was to produce projections of pension spending as percentage of GDP for the next fifty years. 3 shows the official projections provided by each country’s institutions, as reported in OECD (2002). This study evaluates several effects: the demographic dynamics, namely the increase in the ratio of recipients from the system—the retirees—to contributors; the employment rate, with a particular emphasis on the goal in terms of employment of the elderly (a 70 percent employment rate for workers above 50 years old) agreed upon by the country members at the Lisbon meetings; and the policy measures, with specific reference to the policy reforms being legislated in the 1990s, and yet to be entirely implemented.

See Diamond 1996; Gramlich 1996; Feldstein and Liebman 2002a). A paternalistic view suggests that a pension scheme, which effectively forces individuals to transfer resources from youth into old age, is required to prevent shortsighted individuals, who may also lack information about their future, from saving too little for their old age consumption. An explanation complementing this view is that— 40 Chapter 3 even if individuals were indeed able to plan for their old age necessities—reliable savings instruments to transfer resources into the future may fail to exist.

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